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Will a Military Nuclear Iran Be or Not Be?
Voices from the I.A.E.A., U.S., Germany, Israel and Al Arabiya

Issue 10, Spring 2012
"The Iranian nuclear clock ticks faster and louder in 2012.  Ehud Barak, the defense minister of Israel, said in late November that it was probably a question of nine months before Iran's attempt to acquire nuclear weapons moved into a 'zone of immunity' where it could no longer be stopped.

"Two weeks ago, his counterpart in Washington, Leon E. Panetta, the secretary of defense, estimated that it was likely to be 'about a year, perhaps a little less' until Iran could have a nuclear weapon.  Carefully imprecise, Mr. Panetta has said, 'If we have to do it, we will deal with it' - without specifically explaining what 'it is.' "

Source: Vinocur, John (December 30, 2011).  West's time to act on Iran is narrowing. 
International Herald Tribune, Global Edition of the New York Times


"The German daily Suddeutsche Zeitung has published several articles... based on intelligence sources proven to be reliable that reported that North Korea has supplied Iran with a highly precise computer to help simulate a nuclear explosion.  According to the report, supported by 'Western' intelligence agencies (a code word that could refer to Germany's BND intelligence agency or even the Mossad), the computer transfer is part of a larger $100 million deal between Tehran and Pyongyang.  The broader deal also includes teaching and training Iranian experts in nuclear weapons and missiles."

Source: Melman, Yossi (September 1, 2011).  Determined as ever.  Haaretz English Edition


The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealed for the first time that it has evidence that Iran has been developing a nuclear triggering technology.  The IAEA said such technology has one use only: "setting off a nuclear weapon."

The disclosure made by the IAEA was buried inside a several-page report on the development of the Iranian nuclear program.  The agency did not say where the evidence came from, nor did it provide many details about the allegations.

Source: Sanger, David and Broad, William J. (May 26, 2011).  Agency gives evidence on Iran atomic trigger work.  International Herald Tribune, Global Edition of the New York Times


Diplomats with access to reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency told news agencies that they had confirmed the reports that Iran has begun uranium enrichment at a new underground bunker and say the process is producing material that can be upgraded quickly for use in a nuclear weapon.

Source: Morris, Harvey (January 10, 2012).  Iranian court gives death penalty to American.  International Herald Tribune, Global Edition of the New York Times


"When the Qum facility was first exposed by President Barack Obama and his counterparts in France and Britain in 2009, American officials expressed doubts that Iran would ever go forward with the facility."

Source: Sanger, David E. (January 9, 2012).  Iran claims 2nd uranium site is nearly operational.  International Herald Tribune, Global Edition of the New York Times


IAEA Director General, Yukia Amano said in September 2011 that Iran may be developing a nuclear weapon. Al Arabiya poses the question: Why is the IAEA publishing its findings now? "Diplomats say Amano, who has taken a tougher approach on the Iran nuclear file than his predecesor Mohamed elBaradei, sees it as his duty to inform member states about the issue, even though the agency's technical findings may have far-reaching political implications."

The IAEA has said that the information it has obtained about the possible underlying military nature of Iran's nuclear program is extensive and comprehensive, and also "broadly consistent and credible."  It said in its last report in September that it continued to receive such information, making clear it was recent.  The data is widely believed to come from the United States, France and Germany as well as Israel, and through the agency’s own investigations.

An Iran expert at the Federation of American Scientists think tank said the most important source in the past of the agency’s information consisted of a collection of electronic files stored in the so-called “Laptop of Death,
shown by U.S. intelligence officials to the IAEA in 2005.  “These include thousands of pages of documents, diagrams and videos brought to Turkey by the wife of an Iranian,” Vaez said. "The documents included were designs for nuclear warheads and diagrams of underground testing sites."

In the Feedback published by Al Arabiya, one reader wrote:  "The whole report is nothing but an extended annexure of Amenrican and Zionist and Arab despots policies. No less than 99% of Arab population, I repeat 99% Arab population is totally with Iran. The first bullet will uproot every Arab dictator and final solution of Zionist entity will be witnessed."

Another reader wrote: "Israel is by facts the greatest oppressor and criminal in the whole world and possesses hundreds of nuclear arsenals (perhaps out of love for Arabs and Persians!) and issues regular threats to attack Iran.  Do you think the present world opinion must subdue to that sort of blatant injustice?"

Source: Dahl, Fredrik (December 1, 2011).  Q & A: U.N. report on Iran's nuclear program.  Al Arabiya News. http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/07/175898.html
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